Avoiding Transit through the Continental U.S.: Option Palatable to U.S., China, and Taiwan
China Times, November 23, 2024
President William Lai, scheduled to visit Taiwan’s Pacific allies on November 30, may transit through either Hawaii or Guam. This transit option, amid the intricate international situations, appears to offer an acceptable way out to the United States, China, and Taiwan.
Both the Republic of China and United States have presidential terms of four years, with Taiwan's presidential inauguration in May and U.S. presidential election in November. To avoid getting embroiled in U.S. election disputes, Taiwan's presidents typically refrain from overseas visits involving transits through the U.S. near year-end. For example, President Tsai Ing-wen visited Panama in June 2016, shortly after her May 20 inauguration, to attend the Panama Canal expansion ceremony. Presidents Chen Shui-bian and Ma Ying-jeou embarked on overseas trips no later than August.
The destination of a president’s first international visit after inauguration normally reflects the nation’s diplomatic priorities; however. While Taiwan's presidents cannot officially visit the United States, the transit through U.S. territory during such overseas trips actually holds greater importance than the visit to Taiwan’s diplomatic allies, highlighting the strong U.S.-Taiwan relationship and demonstrating staunch American support for Taiwan.
President Lai’s decision to delay his overseas trip until nearly December is not unrelated to some turbulence caused by the election in the United States. In June, during the presidential debate, President Joe Biden performed poorly, leading to widespread calls for him to withdraw. This was followed by Mr. Trump surviving an assassination attempt in July, which significantly boosted his political momentum. On July 21, President Biden ultimately announced he would not seek reelection, prompting the Democratic Party to rally around Vice President Kamala Harris.
After he withdrew from the race, President Biden shifted his focus to international affairs. Both China and the United States confirmed to hold a farewell summit between their leaders on the margins of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting in Peru in November. A transit by Lai through the continental United States could jeopardize this Biden-Xi meeting. Therefore, transiting through Hawaii or Guam is seen as a safer option.
Visiting Pacific allies and returning a visit to Palau, whose President Surangel Whipps Jr. visited Taiwan on September 27, provide a natural context for President Lai to transit through Hawaii or Guam. This route arrangement would preempt potential speculations of any U.S. skepticism about President Lai by the outside world.
Mainland China’s reaction to President Lai's Pacific trip toward end of November is also expected to be relatively minor. The more pressing concern for Taiwan’s government is the potential challenges posed by the Trump administration after he returns to power, as his inclination to reject multilateral cooperation in the international community would make it even more challenging for Taiwan to safeguard its diplomatic allies. Mr. Trump’s previous term saw Taiwan lose six diplomatic allies in a row, including geopolitically critical countries such as Panama, the Dominican Republic, and the Solomon Islands. During President Biden’s term, Taiwan also lost three allies.
According to official sources, President Lai's visit aims to strengthen bilateral cooperation in response to climate change. However, Mr. Trump’s emphasis on fossil fuels and disinterest in green energy and carbon reduction, coupled with his campaign promise to have a massive crackdown on and deportation of illegal immigrants, could strain U.S. relations with the Pacific and Latin American countries. This would create opportunities for Beijing to further make inroads into the area. In the face of a disengaged Trump administration, Taiwan’s efforts to maintain its diplomatic allies would face increasingly daunting challenges.
From: https://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20241123000382-260118?chdtv